Timeline for Robert’s Rebellion

GRRM is pretty fuzzy with dates, which can be rather annoying when you’re trying to work out who was where and when, and how long things took (and when babies were born…)

The Rebellion is one of these awkward, fuzzy, vague timelines. It took somewhere around 9-18 months? Maybe?

I got sick of not being sure, so I investigated procrastinated one night and worked it all out. because who needs to write their postgrad papers huh?

This is what I reckon happened, and when.

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Jon Arryn: Rebellion Mastermind

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We don’t see much of Jon Arryn, or get to know him personally in GOT/ASOIAF, but he is key to all that happens. It is his death that starts the series off, the conspiracy around his death that turns us all on our heads at the end of ASOS, and the inability of the realm’s Kings to govern without him that drives the entire ‘game of thrones’/political storyline in both show and books.

Jon Arryn was able to unite the Rebellion behind the claim of Robert Baratheon and, given what we know about Robert’s lack of enthusiasm for being king, is the brains behind the period of stability and good governance that marked Robert Baratheon’s reign. But why did the rebellion go so hard, all or nothing to overthrown all the Targaryens, rather than just the unfit for rule Aerys II? Was it just Robert’s personal feelings about Rhaegar Targaryen that led Jon Arryn to lead a Rebellion against the dragon kings, or was there something deeper and more considered going on?

This post is going to lean heavily on the theory of Southron Ambitions, and my own take on it which I term “Southron Ambitions turned up to 11”. The crux of my approach to Southron Ambitions is that not only did the previous generation of Great Lords plan a series of political marriages to unite Westeros more than before following on from buddying up while on the road for the War of the Ninepenny Kings, but there was always an agenda to overthrow the Targaryens. The realm had been dissatisfied with Targaryen madness or unfitness for generations, and House Targaryen now lacked the dragonfire to demand compliance, and was ripe for removal.

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Southron Ambitions – turned up to 11

BRING OUT YOUR TINFOIL!

Southron Ambitions is the name for a much touted fan theory that Rickard Stark married off his sons and daughter to southern houses for the purpose of aligning with other Great Houses. It’s pretty well accepted because it fits with the recent history of ASOIAF:

  • Brandon Stark was betrothed to Catelyn Tully
  • Eddard Stark was fostered at the Eyrie by Jon Arryn
  • Hoster Tully was negotiating with Tywin Lannister for Lysa to marry Jaime
  • Lyanna Stark was betrothed to Robert Baratheon
  • Oberyn Martell reminiscences with Tyrion about Oberyn and Elia visiting Casterly Rock with their mother, who had ambitions to match off her kids to the Lannister Twins (can you imagine Cersei and Oberyn? Hilarious.)

So we know for a fact that there was a lot of marriage alliances going on between all the major houses in Westeros, except for the Tyrells, who at that point didn’t have anyone of marriageable age (remember – Loras and Margaery are only 15-17 at the time of ASOS)

But I think there was more than just plans to get to know each other at the heart of these marriage alliances. Remember, in medieval times, marrying your sons and daughters off was the best way to seal a political union.

The TLDR version is:

  • Bitter Lady Dustin is correct that Rickard Stark had “southron ambitions” in arranging Southron matches for his children
  • but she doesn’t know the bigger picture: the Great Houses involved in these matches were preparing to overthrow the Targaryens for ever.
  • plan was massively accelerated when Lyanna ran off with Rhaegar as Aerys’ over reaction to Brandon’s behaviour, and killing Brandon and Rickard, gave the would be rebels the perfect excuse to launch their planned rebellion.

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Rhaegar v Robert, as depicted in The World of Ice & Fire

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